You're probably wondering why I haven't mentioned Israel and Lebanon on this blog yet; that's because I'm convinced the whole situation is just a bloody mess, and there's not much hope for it. Hezbollah followed up an ill-conceived kidnapping with an idiotic but deadly bombing campaign of Northern Israel, while Israel has responded with disproportionate force, killing hundreds of civilians in Southern Lebanon, wounding thousands more, and tearing apart Lebanese infrastructure, including bridges, major roads, airport runways and power stations. Let's take a look at the aims and achievements of each side, starting with Hezbollah.
This mess emerged after Hezbollah abducted two Israeli soldiers in a cross-border raid, at a time when Israeli was already desperately fighting in Gaza to rescue Corporal Gilad Shalit, captured by Hamas a little more than two weeks before. Israel's strikes in Gaza, and its foray back into that territory, still ongoing, have been massive.
Hezbollah's hope in capturing the soldiers was, like Hamas, of securing a prisoner exchange. As well as gaining prestige (for their ability to capture the soldiers), both Hamas and Hezbollah demanded the release of hundreds of prisoners in Israeli prisons in return for the soldiers. Such exchanges have precedents. Yet the response against Hamas, and civilians in Gaza, was massive: the strip's only power station was bombed, the flow of goods in and out was reduced to almost nothing, and Israeli aircraft have terrorised the population by strikes and sonic booms at night. In that light, how could Hezbollah expect different policies from Ehud Olmert's government? Such would have been an admission of defeat, and of being wrong in their actions against Gaza. Israel's recourse was to initiate strikes against targets in Lebanon, and later to send soldiers into the South of the country.
Following the Israeli reprisals, Hezbollah started launching rockets into Israel, including bigger, longer-range, and more accurate rockets than the small katyushas they've been pelting Northern Israel with for years. Haifa was the first target of these rockets, almost certainly Iranian-supplied Fajr-3 missiles. One of the rockets, which hit a railway depot in Haifa, killed eight and wounded dozens more, leading to further Israeli reprisals. It looked like an all-out war, and one in which Hezbollah couldn't possibly make any long-term gains.
[An alternative theory holds that Iran, Hezbollah's major backer, originally requested the abduction of the Israeli soldiers to divert attention from Iran's nuclear enrichment activities during the G8 summit. Loathe as I usually am to engage in such conspiracy theories—I favour cock-up theories as a rule—there may be some truth in that. Iran certainly has enough sway over Hezbollah, and did benefit from the predictable shift in spotlight.]
Regardless of the motives behind the abduction, and subsequent rocket-attacks, Hezbollah seemed destined to lose. Lebanese public support for Hezbollah initially wavered, with many asking why Hezbollah had invited the Israeli attacks on their country. Hezbollah was by many seen as an alien, Shiite, entity, sponsored by Iran and Syria, and so not representing Lebanon or the majority of the Lebanese people, particularly its Maronite Christians, Druze and Sunni populations. Yet soon enough, given Israel's response, support for Hezbollah in Lebanon was on the rise. Offered a view of Hezbollah from a perspective of the Israeli punishment (whether intended or not) of the Lebanese people, most Lebanese were utterly alienated by Israel, becoming more supportive of Hezbollah as a result. Perhaps Hezbollah made some gains in terms of support, but it now faces an existential threat stronger than anything with which it could threaten Israel.
As I have written above, the immediate response to the kidnapping by Hezbollah—the use of force—was pretty much a foregone conclusion. But not the scope or scale of force, with the runways of Beirut's airport being one of the first targets of the Israeli airstrikes. In the days that followed, the roads out of Lebanon, primarily to Syria, were bombed, as were more than sixty bridges in the country, power stations, and other infrastructure. The major price has been paid by Lebanese civilians. Hundreds have been killed in strikes on civilian infrastructure and Hezbollah strongholds, and hundreds of thousands have been made refugees, or have been left stranded in their homes by the strikes. Supplies and aid to the South of the country are trickling in painfully slowly over the battered roads made available for their delivery.
The reasoning behind this strategy is simple: drive Hezbollah out of Lebanon. Kill them, and destroy their stockpiles. Destroy the infrastructure to disrupt their movements and supplies, preventing further deliveries of rockets, ammunition, food and medicine. A secondary reason, and a possible explanation for the attacks' lack of proportion, could be the deterrence of potential adversaries. Against terrorists willing to be 'martyred', the thought that their people may also suffer could prove sobering.
Taken to their logical conclusion and beyond, the attacks on Hezbollah and Lebanon will not achieve their stated aim. While Israel has resolved to use more force, Hezbollah's support base has grown in proportion. And Hezbollah has threatened even longer-range rocket attacks, hinting at even greater missiles supplied by Iran. Even if Israel manages to remove the group from the area without sustaining too many losses, as soon as they withdraw Hezbollah will begin to return. Faces will change, methods will change, but they will still dangerous, and no less armed. A peacekeeping team, under UN auspices, will probably enter the area when activity ceases, but its effectiveness, even in a best-case scenario, would not be enough to prevent a clandestine resurrection. Lebanon will not be strong enough to retake control of its South in the foreseeable future, and all of the root causes of Hezbollah's existence will remain. This mess will be around for quite some time to come.
You don't need me to tell you it's hot in Europe. These last couple of weekends I've been taking the opportunity to go into the countryside (Karlšštejn last week, Máchovo jezero this week) with the Prague Hash House Harriers. The Czech countryside is a few degrees cooler than Prague, and offers more activities like geocaching, running through dark places at night, running through steep rocky places during the day, falling down steep forested hills, swimming a kilometre to an island and back, and resting on the beach.
In between such events, I've been at home editing an article written by one of my co-workers. My flat is cooler than my office. It's nice to be able to work from home, but I'm looking forward to air conditioning in my next job.
There's an excellent analysis of what's going on in Kim Jong Il's head here, courtesy of the Christian Science Monitor.
I'm pleased to announce my forthcoming career change to a position as Channel Program Analyst in Cisco's Prague office - a somewhat wide-ranging role assisting Cisco's Channel Sales Organizations in the Emerging Markets Theatre. The job's a big step up for me, and I'm looking forward to starting in September, or earlier if the IIR can let me go sooner.
This means less time for blogging in future, and less time for reading so widely on international affairs, but, on the other hand, more money and a brighter future.
Congratulations to my sister Emma, who was awarded a 2:1 for Politics, Philosophy and Economics at Oxford University!
Here's another picture of Manny, step-sister Penny's boy, now aged 5 months.
Normal coverage of international affairs will resume shortly, though I'll quickly applaud the decision to grant all US military detainees their rights under the Geneva conventions. It's not before time, and the US is no worse off as a result.
William Marshall has an excellent opinion piece in today's IHT, laying out exactly why America's steps towards a massively expensive space-based weapons program is a bad idea. Not only do such steps go against international norms and antagonise other nations but, more importantly, the military gains available for such heavy costs could easily and cheaply be rendered worthless by any half-capable potential adversary.
After all the fuss in recent weeks about a possible test firing of a Taepodong 2 missile by North Korea, with some advocating an early strike against the launcher and others speculating on the consequences, they actually went ahead and did it.
Yesterday, North Korea lobbed a bunch of missiles, about six, although we're not sure, into the Sea of Japan. A few hours later, they threw in another one, for good luck. Most of these missiles were short and medium range, Scud-Bs and Hwasongs or Nodongs, although they did include one dreaded Taepodong 2, thought able to reach the US mainland (although only with a light warhead, and probably favourable weather).
Reactions were surprisingly consistent, with pretty much everyone agreeing that this was a provocation. The Japanese and South Koreans have most to fear from any kind of regional escalation, and would be likely targets of North Korea's missiles in an all-out war. Japan imposed sanctions on travel to and from North Korea in the aftermath. Japan also requested an emergency closed session of the UN Security Council.
Funnily enough, all is not lost. In fact, nothing is lost, except for North Korea. Japan's harder line will undoubtedly be followed by other parties in negotiations on North Korea's nuclear weapons programme. North Korea's closest 'friend', China, will no doubt now be less friendly towards its embarrassing and destabilising neighbour, and other neighbours Russia and South Korea are hardly lining up in its defence.
Moreover, the actual tests were, overall, a failure. The abilities of the short and medium range missiles were known, their successful testing shows little other than traditional North Korean brinkmanship. The failure of the Taepodong 2, less than a minute after its launch, however, actually shows the feebleness of North Korea's technology, and by extension, its economy. So while North Korea will see a lot of negative repercussions from the tests, the possible positive—an increase in prestige and a strengthened hand in negotiations—spectacularly failed to materialise, to the sound of a very big belly-flop.
Whatever the future holds for the six-party talks, and for the North Korean regime, this was truly their loss.
Update:
The repercussions of this will go on for quite some time, it seems. While the UN Security Council has so far failed to produce any unified action, with China and Russia rejecting a strong resolution that could lead to sanctions, South Korea has piled on the pressure by suspending food aid to North Korea. This comes amidst fears that North Korea is preparing to test-fire another Taepodong missile. This is really just belligerent idiocy at its worst.
"O What can ail thee, knight-at-arms,
Alone and palely loitering?
The sedge has wither'd from the lake,
And no birds sing.
"O what can ail thee, knight-at-arms!
So haggard and so woe-begone?
The squirrel's granary is full,
And the harvest's done.
"I see a lily on thy brow
With anguish moist and fever-dew.
And on thy cheeks a fading rose
Fast withereth too.
"I met a lady in the meads,
Full beautiful—a faery's child,
Her hair was long, her foot was light,
And her eyes were wild.
"I made a garland for her head,
And bracelets too, and fragrant zone;
She look'd at me as she did love,
And made sweet moan.
"I set her on my pacing steed,
And nothing else saw all day long;
For sidelong would she bend, and sing
A faery's song.
"She found me roots of relish sweet,
And honey wild and manna-dew;
And sure in language strange she said,
'I love thee true.'
"She took me to her elfin grot,
And there she wept and sigh'd full sore;
And there I shut her wild, wild eyes
With kisses four.
"And there she lullèd me asleep,
And there I dream'd—ah! woe betide!
The latest dream I ever dream'd
On the cold hill's side.
"I saw pale kings and princes too,
Pale warriors, death-pale were they all:
They cried, 'La belle Dame sans Merci
Hath thee in thrall!'
"I saw their starved lips in the gloam
With horrid warning gapèd wide,
And I awoke and found me here
On the cold hill's side.
"And this is why I sojourn here
Alone and palely loitering,
Though the sedge is wither'd from the lake,
And no birds sing."
~John Keats (1820)
