More Russian Scheming

Here.

Disgusting, ain't it?

With friends like these...

Catching up on the news after a long week, I'm surprised at how explicit things are becoming with Russian foreign policy. The diplomatic niceties are being stripped away as the obstacles between Russia and Europe multiply, from human rights and corruption to free speech and international belligerence (see here and here for the latest). The more I read, and this has been a trend going back years, the more I'm convinced that Russia is not a viable partner for the West, and will not be one for the foreseeable future. They will use their oil and gas as political weapons, and they won't open up their energy market for outside investment or sign the energy charter, both of which would soften that weapon. And they will support the expansion of that weapon, of course. I tend to focus on Russia's foreign policy, but a couple of weeks ago the Economist published this on Russia, concluding with reservations, that Russia's heading might be towards fascism. If you only read one of the links in this paragraph, in fact if you weren't going to read any of them, you should read that one.

So what should European states do? Well, the best they could do would be to allow relations to cool. If Russia doesn't want to open up its markets, then the EU should reciprocate. If Russia doesn't improve its protection of foreign investments, then foreign investments should not be encouraged, although they shouldn't be prohibited; let the market put a price on the risk and let that deter investment. If Russia bullies her neighbours, the Europeans could at least let the rest of the world know it disapproves, or at most could offer military (via NATO) and/or economic assurances to counter the threats. And, most importantly, if Russia oppresses its people, whether ethnic Georgians, journalists, citizens, economic migrants, or just people doing business, then the EU shouldn't be shy of raising its voice, instead of dirtying itself by implied association and allowing wiggle room for misdeeds.

North Korea's Test

I'll make this short—it's nearly my bedtime.

The point about brinkmanship is that you don't step off the edge. While some might say the real edge would be a resumption of the Korean war, I don't. The North Koreans don't have an option of going back to war. While they have a massive conventional military edge over the South with the military line-up along the border, their forces imply deterrence—i.e. they could do massive damage in retaliation (think missiles), but are in no state to mount an offensive campaign. Their 'mobile' forces are quite entrenched along the border, and their supplies and logistics during any campaign are questionable. War isn't a realistic 'brink', the nuclear test is.

Does this increase the chances of war? Not really. North Korea now has a greater deterrent—at least, it will once it's managed to make a warhead-sized bomb. So what has it gained? Well, China and Russia are pissed, America's very pissed, international counter-proliferation initiatives are now even weaker (because states that want the bomb know it's possible), and Iran and Japan now have more incentives to join the nuclear club. North Korea's all but lost its friends, further isolation and sanctions seem certain.

At the same time, the test might not be all it seemed. The relative smallness of the explosion implies either that a fairly low fraction of the plutonium—assuming the material was taken from the reactor at Yongbyon—fissioned, or that the explosion was indeed conventional, which is unlikely but possible. In any case, a second test is quite likely, both so they can improve their mechanisms, and so they can gather more data.

Not that that'll do them any good.

Just dance

The world's pretty ungovernable (North Korea, Iran), and right now I don't really care.

Thursday was my first time as DJ/organiser of the bimonthly Jam Cafe Milonga. I've taken this role over from Jan Chrostek, who's off to Congo again as an election observer (good luck...). It went well, was well-attended and the dancers enjoyed the music. Next one will be even better, with shorter sets—I'll aim for 15 minutes, down from 12. I'll also see about posting my playlist online a week before so people can review it—a first for Prague milongas.

OK, time to go to another milonga.

Bastards

Just in case anyone suspected the Russians might not be such sons of bitches....

Bowing to pressure, the Georgians released the spies on Monday, handing them over to Russia via the OSCE, after which Russia imposed a blockade (story here) on all transport and post between the countries. This was justified by some crap about preventing illegal money flows. The immediate effect will be pretty strong, with many Georgians supported by trade with Russia, or by wages sent back from family members working there.