I've spent the last couple of days catching up on all the news I've missed in the past week, which saw me canoeing on the Vltava with the Prague HHH for four days, then flying out to Manchester to see the family. In that time, we've finally had a ceasefire in Southern Lebanon, and the beginnings of an Israeli withdrawal and entry of the Lebanese army into the area (it will be supported by a bolstered UN force).What's been achieved? Lots of rockets have been destroyed: at least the bigger ones, that is. In the end Hezbollah couldn't manage to hit Tel-Aviv. The smaller Katyusha rockets, more mobile, easier to hide and fire, are still there in abundance, ready to be pointed towards Israel and fired. Hundreds of Hezbollah militants have been killed, but there are still enough to strike Israel, and more than a hundred Israelis have been killed (see here for figures). Israel has set up a commission to investigate the prosecution of the campaign.
After proclaiming victory, and with the entry of the Lebanese army into the South, Hezbollah has started both to melt back into the scenery and to reemerge as a charitable agency aiding Lebanese Shiites with money and services, and gaining support there. There won't be any disarmament any time soon, but they have lost in terms of men, facilities and weapons.
The Lebanese people took the brunt of it, and, understandably, they're pissed. For those Lebanese returnees coming home to a flattened home, this is a calamity that came from outside, whether the fault of Israel, or of Hezbollah, or of the Bush administration in America (Israel's support and encourager). No gains for them (have another look here).
So everyone loses, regardless of what they said or thought. Nearly. Iran hasn't done so badly out of it all (see last post). Their uranium enrichment facilities are up and running, and the world's looking the other way. Sure, they've offered to talk about it, but they're not offering anything new that could lead to an actual cessation (as opposed to a suspension) of enrichment. And Ahmadinejad's emboldened enough to press Shiite militias in Iraq to step-up attacks (allegedly) and, once more, to call for an Israel-free Middle East.
All in all a bit of a cock-up.
Update:
The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, has published an online analysis of Hezbollah's motives. Read it here.
