More Nukes

Hi all - a brace of issues for your attention.

Firstly, an article by M. D. Nalapat alleging China's proliferation of nuclear arms to states including Myanmar and Bangladesh, as well as Pakistan and North Korea. Worrying stuff, but I still have the rather quaint and naive belief that nukes are a defensive weapon at best. They're no good for invading a country or trying to rob someone, and nuclear-backed belligerence is both hard to believe and hard to pull off; the first country to take international security to such depths would be cast out by its friends and neighbours. No country would want such a danger anywhere around, either from the threat of fallout from that state's nuclear attacks, or from the attacks against it. So a more nuclear world doesn't bring us close enough to Armageddon that I really start worrying. But I digress...

Secondly, Iran. We have a worrying situation, with hawks in the US and, oddly enough, France, looking for trouble to fix by talking tough in public (can't remember that one working often).

The issue of Iran's nuclear program has been up in front of the UN Security Council, which came up with little of substance about it, and President Ahmadinejad, not one to shy away from controversy, visited the US for some highly publicised engagements. That, unsurprisingly, didn't help. Iran is emboldened not by its weapons, which probably won't exist for at least another 10 years (see past blog entries), but by the international inability to do anything about its rather blatant program. It's strengthening its friendship with Russia while mocking the seeming inability of the US, currently mired in Iraq, to follow up on Iran's nuclear grandstanding. The Bush administration is talking of compromise, while drawing attention to its willingness to defend Israel (which President Ahmadinejad has spoken of wanting wiped off the map). France, meanwhile, is continuing the tough talk, this time with worries about the scale of the Iranian program (more centrifuges), while the Iranians have been demanding explanations.

So a lot to think about there, and a lot to hint at inaction: a lack of consensus at the UN, powerful friends (Russia and China), military over-stretching and still a lot of time before any Iran gets their nukes. And beyond that, the question of whether a nuclear Iran would be the day of reckoning the doom-mongers seem to think: much as Ahmadinejad would like Israel off the map, he wouldn't risk the destruction of Tehran for that aim (whether done by enabling terrorists or otherwise). Even if he wanted to it's highly unlikely the Iranian military and senior government would actually let him; don't forget that Jerusalem is holy for Muslims too, and that they wouldn't like the deaths of Palestinians on their hands.

Anyway - I'm digressing again. The main threat here, and one I take more seriously than any threat from Iran, is the threat to Iran. I know I've just written how unlikely that is, but the main danger is that the question of HOW an attack on Iran could be done would replace the question of IF it should be done. The US military will, at some point, be asked for suggestions, if it hasn't already. So the first credible plan from the US, along the lines of a hit-and-run, might actually be put to the test: all the questions about whether that's wise would be dropped in favour of showing the world that the US isn't impotent after all, and bringing Iran down a notch. That's the main danger, from my perspective.

Besides the international politics, all's well. At the weekend I'm back to Mseno, this time with a small group of tango dancers. And tomorrow's the milonga at the Jam Cafe - I'm back as DJ this month (Jan took last month). Work's hard, but still interesting.

Cannonball Adderley 6tet - Jazz 625 - Come Suday

Enjoy!

Nice life

I'm in San Jose. I arrived 18 hours and three flights after I departed, and spent the last three days in meetings and out with Cisco people. It was good to meet some of the people I've been speaking to for 9 months but hadn't met. It was also interesting to hear about the different places people live in.

I've been working hard in recent months. I have a big workload, could easily work 12 hours a day and make bloody well sure I don't. But I enjoy my work, the variety and depth of the challenges I face day-to-day. When I speak to people outside Cisco, they're often surprised at how much I enjoy my work. On top of that, when I speak to people who live elsewhere, they get a good idea of how much I love living in Prague. Altogether, I'm lucky. Or maybe I just put a premium on location and having an enjoyable job.

I have a day off tomorrow—I'm going to San Francisco for the day, returning to Prague via Amsterdam on Saturday afternoon. I'm looking forward to seeing San Francisco, but looking forward to being home even more.

Just relaxing

I'm having a week off. So far I've been catching up on my laundry, which has been extremely neglected since I went to Amsterdam last week and Mseno at the weekend. I've also been going to aikido and tango—I took over the one on Tuesday as the usual host is in Shanghai, I'm now making the playlist for tonight.

I took the above picture on my phone at Máchovo jezero at the weekend. It's a big lake with a few beaches. We also visited a castle, went horse riding and swam in river. All in all it was a pretty nice weekend.

If you hadn't noticed, Iran is increasingly detaining journalists and academics from foreign think-tanks/NGOs. See here, here and here (and also here). The detentions have been linked by some media to the arrests of five Iranians in the USA in January; that strikes me as unlikely given the time delay. More likely are fears in Tehran of US efforts towards a 'soft revolution' (see here) or a desire to set a few examples to Iranians working for foreign organisations abroad.

Right—time to make that playlist.

BAE-Saudi alleged corruption

This is another story I've picked up late concerning the abandonment of an inquiry into a BAE slush fund used to secure contracts from Saudi Arabia and elsewhere. The slush fund was uncovered in May 2004 following rumours and allegations going back to February 2001. On December 14th 2006, the Serious Fraud Office dropped the investigation, with the Prime Minister's Office justifying the move on grounds of "national interest". All very 19th-century. Basically the Saudis were getting upset and were threatening to drop a big impending purchase of Eurofighters from BAE in favour of Mirage planes from France (BBC timeline here). Of course, there's lots of jobs and money at stake.

Following the halting of the UK's investigation, the UK tried to kill at birth the OECD's own investigation into the case by trying to oust the head of that body's anti-corruption watchdog on April 24th.

If you're still wondering what caused me to dredge this up now, it was a report drawn up by the House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee stating that this may have caused "severe damage" to the UK's reputation in the fight against corruption, and asking to know what the government has been doing about it, and what their arguments put to the OECD were.

My take on this is simple: it's disgusting, and completely lacking in integrity. Modern Britain has formerly taken pride in its honesty, and although corruption has at times lain under the surface, it has not been publicly acceptable in this way for centuries. Of course Britain's wealth, employment rates and political clout is important, but for me its edge over much of the developed world (and most of the developing world) is in its political culture of transparency, fairness and integrity, and those have taken a headbutt from the government's capitulation in the face of losing BAE's Eurofighter deal.

Knowing I wouldn't be the only one who felt this way, I went to 10 Downing Street's petitions website. I'm not the only one. There are currently three others. Sign here.

(It won't make the blindest bit of difference, but you'll think you did something worthwhile.)

Media Freedom in Russia - not much better

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/04/20/news/press.php

I'm pretty late with that, have been busy with work. I'm enjoying it, but it tends to turn me hyper, so I've been spending lots of my free time relaxing; I've been for Thai massages twice in the last three weeks or so, and want to get back to aikido soon.

The milongas are going well. Although I usually take a big chunk out of my Sunday to make the playlists, I enjoy that, and the milonga itself is usually the highlight of my week.

Bastards!

I've been told I'm harsh on Russia in this blog, and that's fair enough. That doesn't deter me from criticising iniquities in Russia, and it doesn't mean I'm wary of criticising iniquities in the US. One of the biggest disgraces there has to be the military tribunals at Guantanamo Bay. Just read this.

Of course, that kind of thing doesn't happen without the general climate to support it. And, with a climate that disregards international law and moral norms, including the Geneva Conventions, the torture of inmates at Abu Ghraib for no reason (albeit three years ago) is not entirely surprising. Nor is the treatment of non-hostile persons travelling through American ports and airports (see here).

This flouting of law and morality hardly helps win hearts and minds. Compounding this, when these cases come to light the relative silence of the American government on the subject is damning. I have no respect for the creators and implementers of these policies, and little respect for those who support such policies without questioning them. Looking beyond my own little prejudices, this gives more than enough ammunition to critics of America and to governments looking to justify their own sins. If the Americans want to preach to the world the ideals of democracy and freedom, they need stronger moral and legal foundations.

Fools!

The Russian Government has banned foreigners from working as shopkeepers or sales assistants in shops. Foreigners can still work in support functions, like cleaning and managing, and in wholesaling, but the guys selling to Russians in shops in Russia must now be Russian themselves. This was done in the name of Russian citizens, at least partly in response to disturbances in Kondopoga between Russians and Chechens. But the effects will be widespread and damaging to Russia's economy and Russian citizens.

Aside from the small portion of Russians who will now be able to take these jobs, most Russians will now face higher prices caused be the higher wages Russians take over economic migrants. In addition, Russian workers will likely be less willing to work long hours, meaning both that shops won't be open as late (an inconvenience) and that they won't be as profitable. This will reduce the money supply in the economy, slowing economic growth. Essentially the economy will become less efficient by denying a large portion of the labour force jobs for which they are well-suited.

All this is pinned on events last year in Kondopoga, where a fight in a restaurant left two Russians dead and provoked bout of demonstrations, which have variously been compared to riots and pogroms. See the RFE/RL story, and this Russian Blog entry for a Russian take on the events, and some more recent coverage from ITAR-TASS. Quite how this legislation will help reduce tensions like those in Kondopoga is beyond me. I suppose the aim is to put some pressure on foreigners to leave, yet with all the jobs still available to foreigners, including owning, running, and working in restaurants like that where the troubles started, I don't see that happening anytime soon.

Not that I'd recommend further restrictions, of course. That'd be really bloody stupid in economic terms, and utterly repugnant in moral terms.

A Sliver of Proliferation History

Interesting stuff....

Probably more than a couple of you are wondering when I'll next write an entry with more than a couple of sentences. I dunno.

It's my brother's birthday today, not that he'll read this anytime soon. Happy Birthday Patrick.

Coincidentially, it's also my new flatmate's birthday today. Happy Birthday Jamie. She doesn't know about this blog, as far as I'm aware.

Big up to the Finchley Massiv!

How 'bout that?

Just returned from the excellent end-of-month milonga at Palac Adria, with Bona Fide playing live. Nothing unusual there, but as I left, some guy shouted "Bravo!" at me.

Actually, he shouted it a few times.

Not bad, eh??

Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaah!

Yesterday I came back from a great 4-day trip to Rinerhorn, Switzerland, with a bunch of Channels guys from Cisco. It was great. Lots of skiers there, and more than enough non-skiers, like me, to enjoy the toboggan run, and, on Friday, a loooooong hike up the valley. And down again. The toboggan run was the highlight though—great fun with clear blue skies and soft, comfy snow, and just as much fun at night, and covered in cloud on an abundance of bumpy ice. Only more painful.

You can see a video of the sledge run taken by people who know what they're doing here. For me, the most fun bits were on my fourth and fifth tries. On the fourth I managed to come off the sledge at the top of a straight run, and watch my sledge sail away from me, launching at the next corner and taking out the big yellow sign for the corner. It was a beautiful sight, appreciated just as much by my colleagues (Kasia, Shilpa and Agnesa, Agi for short). Luckily I only had to clamber over 30 metres of snow, between 30 and 50 degrees gradient, before finding my sledge upside-down by a stream. You can see the sign I took out, and carefully replaced, after the 4:20 mark on the video. You can't really see the steep drop on the other side.

After that, we went straight back up to do it again. This time I managed to stay firmly on the sledge, mostly. If you look at the video, after 5:50, you'll see a sharp right-turn, followed by a steep drop and a sharp left. When I rounded that corner on the fifth go, I saw Agi lying ahead, sledge next to her. The track was icy, I couldn't stop, but I managed to steer right, hitting her sledge. And, of course, falling off a couple of metres away. We lay there a couple of seconds, laughing our asses off, then Kasia rounded the corner, fast and unable to stop. At this point, Agi was lying horizontally across the run, completely unable to get out of the way in time. So I grabbed her and heaved her to the side, out of the way. Kasia managed to stop by crashing into the next corner, after which the two of them, pretty amazed, said I'd saved her life. Well, maybe I saved her from a couple of cracked ribs and some nasty bruises, but hey—I don't mind being called a hero...

Of course, we also had some great dinners, made fools of ourselves in a club in Davos, and went on a horse-drawn sleigh ride (bloody cold). All in all it was great.

Oh, and I celebrated my birthday there too, with a couple of birthday cakes to share out after dinner on the 2nd. I think the wine must have been pretty good; it seems a bit hazy.