Georgia on my mind

If you hadn't noticed, Georgia's facing a lot of crap once more from Russia (see the BBC, The Hindu, the IHT, and my blog entry from January). Georgian police arrested four Russian military servicemen for spying, and surrounded the Russia military headquarters in Tbilisi, demanding the handover of a fifth. The Georgians say they have video evidence showing these guys actively gathering sensitive information on military and energy facilities. The Russian government, naturally, denied everything. Then they started withdrawing their embassy staff, mobilising troops close to the Georgian border, and claimed that the planned military pullout from Russian bases in Georgia could not go ahead. The latter claim was based upon some bull about not having the ability to defend themselves during the pullout, but my guess is that Russia's been looking for an excuse to postpone the pull-out for a while.

The chances of an invasion are pretty low, but Russia really wants to prevent Georgia's shift towards the West, especially towards NATO, and will use any heavy-handed means possible, including scare-tactics, funding pro-Russian opposition parties, and supporting the break-away regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. If and when the Russian 'peacekeepers' do leave, I'd expect a Georgian attempt to retake control of those territories within a few years. Quite right, too: neither of those regions could stand up on their own economically, and both have more ethnic Georgians and Georgian-speakers than ethnic Russians. The simple truth is that Russia maintains its military presence there and spends money to support the regions as a means of pressure against Tbilisi.

The government in Moscow still sees the world in zero-sum terms: what's good for our enemies is bad for us, what's bad for our enemies is good for us. The idea that Russia's neighbours might actually welcome relations based upon openness and mutually-beneficial trade holds no sway in Russia. Relations with their smaller neighbours instead seem governed by the idea that they should instead bow to Russia's military power and leverage over energy distribution. Yet their over-reaction actually betrays their weakness, rather than their strength: They have no actual means to safeguard their 'spies', both now and in the future, and hope to scare the Georgians out of imprisoning these ones and arresting any more. They have a large, if ramshackle, military, and control the majority of the region's oil and gas, but that's it. Further economic sanctions are a possibility, but if they're applied to too many products and without good reasons, they could jeopardise Russia's accession to the WTO. Otherwise, Russian diplomacy is stunted by a lack of experience in open, quid-pro-quo negotiations. It doesn't look like that will change any time soon.

Lifestyle Changes

Unsurprisingly, things have changed a lot for me in the last few weeks—I'm working longer hours, have much less flexibility in the hours I work, and find myself more tired at the end of the day. What used to be a common 30-minute nap after work at the IIR has become an almost-mandatory 45-minute nap, followed by about 5 minutes of disorientation, after getting home from Cisco. Still, I don't mind too much, and things should ease up once I've become more familiar with everything going on at work; it's the non-stop learning and paying attention that knackers me. I do still usually have enough time to go out during the week to play football, dance tango, and do aikido, and I can still run with the Hash House Harriers fairly frequently, so I don't have too much to complain about.

But as a whole, my life's much less relaxed than it used to be. I used to be relaxed pretty much automatically, without thinking about it. Now I have to pay attention to my spare time, ensuring I relax (sleep) after work, and also that I get enough exercise (football and/or running), and aikido. Aikido doesn't sit in the same category as football and running—it takes less energy, but relaxes more, hour for hour, than anything else I know.

Of course I now have much less time to read the news, which is why I have no idea what the Pope said about Muslims (I heard a couple of people talking about it). But, just in case you have some free time and want to get a good overview for how things have been at Guantanamo Bay, read this. And, for those interested in the latest American hardline bullshitting on Iran, read this.

Sketchy update

I've been busy at Cisco (go figure...) preparing to become the facilitator of the EMER Incentives Council, which will go online in February. This meant going to Amsterdam to meet the facilitator of the Europe and Emerging Incentives Council to try to understand what it's all about. I won't go into detail, but this won't be easy, and will test my abilities.

Iran is dancing towards its nuclear goals, and no-one seems able to do much about it. Those who regularly read this blog may remember that I'm not as worried about a nuclear-armed Iran as most Westerners seem to be, but still, this isn't exactly a good thing.