So Iraq's Shiites and Kurds have presented a draft Iraqi constitution for ratification by referendum, giving up on the idea of reaching a consensus with themost hardline Sunni negotiators. As analysts try to work out whether the three Sunni-majority provinces will vote against the constitution with the two-thirds majority necessary to reject it, Kurdish and Shiite Iraqi politicians have been justifying their abandonment of the Sunnis, or at least those Sunnis who wouldn't compromise on autonomy for the regions and de-Baathification. This is an error on their parts.
Voters' views on the constitution are being formed now; these politicians should be putting all their effort into selling the constitution to Iraq's Sunnis, given that the support of their own electorates is all but assured. Otherwise a rather predictable path may well emerge: Sunni voters feel slighted by the sidelining of their leaders (or at least some of them), and reject the constitution for this reason alone. Need I draw a parallel to the EU constitution? The French and Dutch rejections were hardly based on rational perusals of the text, were they? Indeed, although the Iraqi constitution is shorter and easier to read for literate Iraqis than the EU text is for their counterparts, it's still too much to ask for voters to rationally read the text and make up their own minds. No - they will listen to their leaders, who feel slighted, and will judge the text purely by this measure.
So Iraq's Kurdish and Shiite leaders should not merely ask Iraqi's population to read the text, as they have been doing. Instead, they must address the arguments of Sunni politicians, rebuffing them in a way that will appeal to the Sunni majority. Instead of focusing on the best aspects of the constitution, and on the need for any constitution to kick-start the country, as instinct dictates, they should address the Sunnis' complaints, arguing, for example, that autonomy for Kurds and Shiites also means autonomy for the Sunnis, and that the alternative would essentially be rule by the Shiites (and Kurds) in Iraq's parliament. The more realistic fears of losing oil revenues to the potential autonomous Shiite region should be addressed directly, with assurances or even an amendment of the constitution to give the Suunis a fair slice of the pie. The time for a strong, focused debate is now - otherwise Sunni voters could turn against the constitution and form a no-surrender attitude that would become entrenched over time.
This is not, it seems, a question that the people who gave me these proofreading tasks seem to worry about. The pieces are constructivist, and based upon the philosophy of language. As my former artist flatmate had it "that is so passé." And as my good friend and philosophy genius Stephen has it, "philosophy of language is a pile of poo." I couldn't put it better myself.
So what is happening in the world? Well, in a remarkable and very welcome move, the North Koreans have announced their preparedness to prove that they do not have a uranium-based weapons programme, and that they are interested in rejoining the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). And in contrast, the Iranians are adamant that processing at Isfahan will continue, but the enrichment plant at Natanz (necessary for turning the uranium hexafluoride gas produced at Isfahan into an atomic weapon) is still under seal, and still on the negotiating table. Most of the negotiators (essentially the EU3, but with the USA on the margins) have already walked away from the table in disgust. Maybe they'll come back, but the new hard-line cabinet in Iran is hardly welcoming or flexible.
And what would a constructivist say to that? Well, if past experience is any guide, he'd take 9 months or so to study the discourse, and then produce some jargon-filled article, of which more than half consists of discussing, comparing, criticising, and tweaking theoretical models, and which no policymaker would properly understand, and ten other constructivists would later criticise. Why bother?
I've rediscovered coffee (again). This happens every now and then, and tends to raise productivity by about 200%. Great! Pity it tastes and smells a bit like burning bin-liners. Maybe I should get something better than Douwe Egberts' basic instant offering.
I'm off to the Zlata Lyra milonga tonight (as most Tuesadys). All you out there should look into learning Argentine Tango as a matter of greatest importance! If you're in Prague - I'll see you there!
Will's been making some slow progress on his MA dissertation. 2:1 he won't finish on time.
In the last couple of days I've been given two tasks (stuff to proofread) with a deadline of the end of August. Should keep me occupied!Played 5-a-side footie last night, feeling a little sore. And tonight? Milonga!You might notice I've added some Google Ads. Please feel free to click on them :-)
Well, it's August, so I'm officially back at work. Compared to the last 3 weeks (officially on holiday), I come in to the office just as much (maybe a bit more), only I'm now supposed to, whereas last week I did it of my own free will. As for workloads - since finishing work on a big article for one of my colleagues here at the IIR, I now have no pressing work, leaving me free to largely ignore the work I should do now I have the opportunity. Instead, I've been reading irrelevant literature (The Evolution of Nuclear Strategy), as well as keeping an eye on international news.
As for everything else, the combination of hashing (Sunday - nothing illegal!), 5-a-side footie (Monday), tango (Tuesdays, non-hash Sundays and alternative Fridays), and aikido (Thursdays and remaining Fridays) keeps my levels of energy down to an acceptable level.
Will, my incompetant flatmate, has less than a month to write his MA dissertation, which was originally due in for September 2003. He's now at the irrelevant reading/arse-scratching stage. Hahahahahaha.
Family Report
Penny (step-sister) is still vomiting for England, apparently. This is all husband Howard's fault, and will probably continue for a few weeks, after which I'll wish her Mazel Tov. I'm gonna be a step-uncle!
Emma (real sister, though you'd never know it from seeing her) is in Italy, working hard before her return for a final year's slog at Oxford. Just hope she doen't pull a Will on us.
Dan (real and only brother) is getting ready to visit me in Prague for a few days from August 10th, which gives me enough time to get some impressive-looking work done.
On that note - I'm off to read something on the CFSP.
