Monday, September 19, 2005

A note of caution...


Finally, the US and North Korea managed some sort of compromise in the six-party talks in China, with the signing of a 'Statement of Principles' in which North Korea promises to give up its weapons and programmes, and the US reaffirms that it isn't going to attack North Korea. The statement leaves open the possibility for a light-water reactor, as well as the timetable for a North Korean return to the NPT, to be discussed in future. This has been heralded as victory for non-proliferation and for diplomacy (Mohammed ElBaradei called it proof that "diplomacy can work"). Obviously, all of the diplomats who had spent painstaking years on this thorny problem had a good reason to pat themselves on the back, too.

But the problem is far from resolved. Future talks are still necessary to firmly end North Korea's nuclear efforts, and the light water reactor could still cause difficulties, although a softening in
America's rhetoric could precede a quiet shift on this issue. More worrying is North Korea's possible (perhaps probable) behaviour at future talks. The North Koreans won this statement, which affirms their arguments for having nuclear power and against American aggression at the cost of their nuclear programme(s), by their tried-and-tested brinkmanship. This method has brought gains for North Korea before (the 1994 associated agreement, brought to an end by North Korean cheating in 2002, is a case in point), and in addition to this statement also brought a recent promise of electricity supply from South Korea. Such gains give little hope that North Korea will abandon this method at future talks. There's still some distance to go.


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Added on 20 September, at 17:10

Post Script:
Even before 24 hours had passed this happens. The North Koreans are now saying that they won't give up their weapons until they have a shiny new power plant. It's probably just a preparation to squeeze extra concessions out of the USA in future talks. Ah well. Back to work.

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