All Change

I was planning to write a brief piece about Iran, explaining why we shouldn't be worried about their restarting of 'nuclear experiments', with reference to this, that, and the other. In short, given the large time frame of the Iranian programme, and the apparent seeds of President Ahmadinejad's destruction, its probably best to wait another couple of years and see if a more pragmatic successor emerges. Sort of an equal and opposite reaction to Ahmadinejad, you might say.

That article has been condensed into the above paragraph, since I've just read this. It looks like Israeli PM Ariel Sharon's political career, if not his life, may well be over, after suffering a major stroke and severe cerebral hemorrhaging. Since it's nearing my bedtime, I'm going to disregard the niceties (this isn't an obituary) and say that this presents a heightened opportunity for resolving the conflict between the Israelis and Palestinians. Similar to Arafat, Sharon had become obstinate in his dealings with the peace process, less willing to compromise, or even communicate, and more prone to unilateralism (hence the West Bank fence and withdrawal from Gaza). His recent reshaping of Israeli party politics by forming the Kadima party, and his apparent incipient exit from politics will leave a state of flux in Israeli politics. I have to admit to not knowing nearly enough about Israeli party politics to try to guess the possible future coalition after the coming elections, but from the little I have read a government of secular, centrist parties, with Kadima and (probably) Labour at the centre seems likely. And I can only hope that Israel's new leaders will take the opportunity to restart the peace process, to reopen talks with the Palestinians, and, importantly, to talk with whichever representatives the Palestinians elect, especially if that means Hamas. Refusing to talk will get precisely nowhere.