Hamas Victory

With Hamas' shocking victory in the Palestinian legislative elections this week, reporters and analysts have been wondering what's next for Palestinian politics, the peace process, and America's promotion of democracy in the Middle East. What's clear is that everything's unclear: Hamas did not expect to win an outright majority and have very few policies ready. Likewise the rest of the world was taken by surprise. So the largely secular population is worried about the possible imposition of Sharia, and the quartet (the UN, USA, EU and Russia) and Israel are flummoxed as to future peace negotiations. The consensus is that nothing will happen until Hamas softens it's approach. While Hamas will soften its approach as the pragmatic considerations of running a government take hold, it's too difficult at present to say how much further they might go in future. But they aren't going to renounce terrorism or recognise Israel any time soon.

As for American policy, this election confirms the near-futility of promoting democratisation before social and economic liberalism. In short, societies which are not ready for democracy will see little long-term benefit from it. By promoting democracy, and wrongly equating it with freedom, the Bush administration is wasting time. Resources should instead be used to assist countries with economic liberalisation to foster stability and the middle-classes. Countries wary of economic upheaval should be assisted to help them overcome their fears of instability. Only when a country is economically stable and prosperous, with a rising middle class pressing for political representation, will it start to become ready for full democracy.